Start/Sit Accuracy a.k.a. Team Manager Rankings

After listening to Phil complain about how many times he’s left 30 burgers on the bench, I wanted to take a deeper dive into analyzing start/sit accuracy. While working through this effort, many questions have surfaced about management and mismanagement of teams, and how roster moves, drafting, and luck weighs in on a team’s overall performance. 

• Phil makes twice as many roster moves as the next person, but does that really matter if he’s going to leave the big scorers on the bench every week?

• Do constant waiver wire moves just cover up poor ability to take the right players in the draft? 

• How lucky is Ethan?

• Can looking at numbers give insight into anything, or is trading for Derrick Henry the only clear path to victory in this league?

Quick breakdown of how I looked through each matchup:

• Each manager has the potential to start 9 players correctly each week. Therefore, a perfect week would be starting all 9 correctly. As the results will show, this provides small separation in accuracy in terms of percentage. We all hover around 60-80%.

• If a bench player outscored a starter, I marked it as incorrect. Doesn’t matter the size of the point difference.

• If any player scored negative, it’s incorrect. Doesn’t matter if there’s no one on the bench to replace them. It’s a bad start regardless.

Some additional notes about the start/sit accuracy results:

• Bye weeks positively skew accuracy. They should pretty much even out across the league.

• Injuries positively skew accuracy. This is not evenly distributed.

I also noted when a team made every possible start/sit decision incorrectly. Regardless of if most of your team was on bye and you only picked two players wrong, or if you had a bunch of bench guys go off and only picked 4 correctly, you shit the bed nonetheless. Gonna call these Donkey Brain weeks to make things easier. I also tallied perfect games, which are pretty self explanatory. 

Manager Rankings

(Yeah, I’m gonna use coaches as the comparisons instead of GMs. I know ‘em better, and you can’t stop me. Also 2021 was a while back, so I’m mostly leaning on this year and last year for any commentary and notes.)

1. Ethan - Kevin O’Connell

Surely this guy’s not the best, right? He’s just the luckiest? 

How did the Vikings win so many games by one score last year? How do they keep doing it? Is Kirk Cousins a good QB? Why do I not really respect them all year, but there they go being “scrappy” and making the (2022) playoffs. 

We’ll find out about how lucky Ethan is once Derek releases the luck-o-meter results. Unfortunately, his start/sit accuracy numbers speak for themselves:

All time: 78.6% (1st)

2023: 73% (T-4th)

2022: 81.7% (1st)

2021: 81.2% (T-2nd)

Donkey Brains Counter: 1 (week 9, 2021)

Perfect Games: 4

Talk about consistency. There’s plenty of clubs that haven’t sniffed 80% accuracy. Even though I went through each matchup myself, I don’t believe this. Please Derek, save us from Ethan being statistically the best manager in the league. This year, I guess Lamar is Ethan’s Kirk Cousins. He’s great in the noon games when there’s 8 other games going on. Does he have what it takes when the spotlight is on? I hope not.

Last but not least - I’d like to remind you that this man drafted 3 defenses in 2021.

2. Mike - Zac Taylor

This guy’s been a beast in the draft (I know it’s the GM, just go with it). I’m not ashamed to say that I root for him as long as we’re not matched up. The exciting talent is there. The defense has been a bit lacking, but has flashes. Also one of the best kickers in the league, gotta love special teams. Unfortunately, they haven’t been able to get it done in the playoffs yet, but there’s still plenty of time to turn that around.

All time: 77.78% (2nd)

2023: 69% (9th) (Nice)

2022: 81% (2nd)

2021: 83.8% (1st)

Donkey Brains Counter: 2 (both in 2021)

Perfect Games: 4

I’ve expected big things out of this organization, but the injuries were just too much this year. Still proud of you for squeaking into the playoffs. First round matchup against Phil felt like Cincy’s rivalry with Pittsburgh: a low scoring, shitty slop-fest. Tomlin got the better of you this time.

3. Sully - Andy Reid

The numbers:

All time: 76.2% (3rd)

2023: 70.6% (7th)

2022: 77.8% (T-3rd)

2021: 80.3% (4th)

Donkey Brains Counter: 1 (week 13, 2021)

Perfect Games: 1

This franchise has proven they’re championship caliber. The coach certainly loves their QB. Jalen really is what Mahomes wishes he could be this year in terms of fantasy scoring. Who knows, maybe he’ll be the first QB off the board next year. It may not even matter if they ban the tush push. Also, this guy’s got some serious tight end talent. 

On the other hand, he’s been relying on an aging veteran who just can’t put up the same numbers as he used to (looking at you, Thielen). Overall, the receivers just suck. They (Higgins, Watson) have big shoes to fill of previous superstars (‘21 Cooper Kupp) and just can’t live up to it. Unfortunately, leaning on smoke and mirrors plays (Taysom Hill in the flex) just didn’t do it this time around. Should be interesting if they adjust their strategy to fill that WR1 slot next year instead of drafting a bum in the first round.

4. Derek - Mike Vrabel

The numbers:

All Time: 75.6% (4th)

2023: 77.8% (1st)

2022: 71.4% (T-8th)

2021: 77.8% (5th)

Donkey Brains Counter: 3

Perfect Games: 1

Never bet against Vrabel in the spread. I hate the Titans, but every year they cover against teams they just don’t have any business competing against. This guy Derek has put up some of the biggest scores in the league, and you can attribute that to his fairly good pick accuracy.

Vrabel has had some serious talent on his team (see AJ Brown). Unfortunately, with Tannehill slinging the ball, you just won’t see their full potential. Sounds like a good idea to trade them, right? No way they’ll become a top 5 guy at their position. 

Although he’s shown some serious skill previously (see 2021), Derek’s drafting and trading this year really shafted him, like the Titans trading AJ Brown last year then picking Will Levis (like Daniel Jones). There’s a reason mayo boy fell to the second round. Also, please for the love of god fix your O-line (stop trading with Brian). Running Henry up the middle doesn’t work. Unless, maybe it will next year? Who knows.

5. Steven - Sean McVay

This guy knows ball. There’s no way around that, and I think everyone would agree. Jourdan Rodrigue made a really interesting podcast series on the Shanahan system before this season. Maybe there should be a podcast series about the rise and fall of Steven. In two years, he’s finished at the top and the bottom. Where will this franchise go next? Will Steven have a McVay-like comeback and reinvent his team next season? Steven’s team has been scary once, and injured once. Not much you can do with that shitbag of a roster.

All Time: 75.4% (5th)

2023: 73.8% (3rd)

2022: 77% (T-5th)

2021: N/A

I can only spend so much time on this, so I’m gonna guess you had too much talent last year and were constantly struggling to figure out who to bench, which put you in the middle of the pack. Big improvement this season. Turns out, if everyone gets injured and your waiver wire guys get hurt or suck, it’s not that hard to start your lineup correctly, right? Wrong.

Donkey Brains Counter: 3

Perfect Games: 0

Even with a bad roster, no perfect games this season. Probably the worst roster mismanaging this league has ever seen took place in back-to-back fashion this year, weeks 13 and 14. 4/9 both times. Posted the lowest score in league history. This dropped you from 1st place accuracy in 2023, which would’ve been one highlight in the midst of the hellscape that is Steven’s 2023 season. You’ll be packing your bags for China if you do that for week 17.

6. Witz - Frank Reich

All Time: 74.07 (6th)

2023: N/A

2022: 77% (T-5th)

2021: 70.9% (T-7th)

Donkey Brains Counter: 2 (both in 2021)

Perfect Games: 1

This is a tough one. He’s a good guy, and I had a great time watching the Rivers season. Hate to see what happened to him during his short stint in Carolina. Took the job, passed off the playcalling, took it back, then got fired. My guess is he wanted CJ but got overruled by GM/owner. 

Drafting Akers was a bad decision. Derek may tell you you’re the luckiest franchise, but look at that picture. Is that the face of a lucky man? Although I’d like to see him back in the league, I don’t blame him if he decides to take time off and find better things to do that’s less of a strain on his mental health. At the end of the day, I just enjoy the fact that half of our current managers are worse at setting their lineups than the guy who bowed out. Good on ya, Witz. At least you got a trophy named after you.

T-7. Andy - Matt Eberflus

All Time: 73.4% (T-7th)

2023: 73% (T-4th)
2022: 66.7% (10th)

2021: 81.2% (2nd)

Donkey Brains Counter: 6

Perfect Games: 2

I didn’t really know who to compare Andy with, like look at those numbers. Absolutely horrendous year last season, but fantastic in 2021 (but missed the playoffs). Is this guy back? Does he know ball? We will certainly see, he could prove us wrong. Eberflus might get fired this year. But also maybe not. Will Justin Fields be a Bear in 2024? Who knows.

Personally, I think it would be funny if they draft Caleb Williams and Drake Maye. Just have a 3-way battle for starting QB. One of them will have to pan out eventually. Just line up two at once so the defense doesn’t know what’s coming: a deep pass or a Fields design run.

I got to give it to Andy, who knew a team with a hurt JJ and both of Green Bay’s running backs would be this successful. Just like the Bears, the defense (and also Kyren) coming out of nowhere and heating up helped carry this squad. Was that just luck, or did Andy out-Phil Phil this year on the waivers? Whether Andy can snag a championship or not, he’ll still have to prove in upcoming seasons that this year wasn’t just a fluke. He’s had the most weeks picking every single start/sit decision wrong, and that’s not something to brag about.

T-7. Q - Sean McDermott

All Time: 73.4% (T-7th)

2023: 69.8% (8th)

2022: 77.8% (T-3rd)

2021: 72.6% (6th)

Donkey Brains Counter: 1

Perfect Games: 1

How has this team not won a superbowl yet?

Sure, Q’s team isn’t flashy, and he likes to stick with his guys. He’s not spending hours looking at free agents like some other guys. But his teams have great foundations. McDermott has turned around the Bills offense this year in a way that is both surprising and scary (to me as a Josh Allen owner). Running the shit out of the ball is a pretty neat move even when you have a star QB and Diggs. Q’s team leaned on CMC this season, but fell short. It was the start/sit decisions in week 14 that got him. That lineup may haunt him as his team is definitely capable of winning a championship. Is it the same story with the Bills - too little, too late?

9. Brian - Mike Tomlin

The Steelers fucking suck. But they are 7-7.

All Time: 73.2% (9th)

2023: 73% (T-4th)

2022: 77% (T-5th)

2021: 69.2% (T-9th)

Donkey Brains Counter: 4

Perfect Games: 0

Pretty sure my first two teams were dogshit and lucky. Obviously I sucked in 2021, but at least half of you were worse. The wheels are falling off my current team, but that’s probably what I deserve. At least I’ve made the playoffs every year. Thanks, Derek.

10. Darrian - Josh McDaniels

All Time: 71.2% (10th)

2023: 75.4% (2nd)

2022: N/A

2021: 66.7% (10th)

Donkey Brains Counter: 4
Perfect Games: 0

Rough ride for this team. Although they have one of the highest producing backs in the league in 2022 Josh Jacobs (2023 Mostert), they just can’t get it done.

Not sure what happened in 2021, but it was ugly as hell. Certainly made a comeback this season, pumping those numbers up by offloading half the bench.

11. Phil - Brandon Staley

They say this guy is a defensive genius. That he’s too smart for his own good and creates schemes that are too complex. The players are buying in, but end up freezing and messing up in coverage trying to figure out which rules apply for which formations. At the end of the day, what makes a good leader? Pushing your guys this hard until you start to lose them? Putting in 200% (on the waiver wire)? I don’t really know how good Phil is at fantasy football, but he certainly does outsmart himself more than anyone else.

The numbers:

All Time: 69.9% (11th)

2023: 67.5% (10th)

2022: 71.4% (T-8th)

2021: 70.9% (T-7th)

Donkey Brains Counter: 4
Perfect Games: 1

Some charts for those who don’t want to read: