2023 End of Year Fantasy Rankings
Important Players on FA:
RB: Saquon, Kareem Hunt, Jamaal Williams, Josh Jacobs, Mostert, Foreman, Boston Scott, Perine, Miles Sanders, Montgomery, Singletary, Damien Harris, Pollard
QB: Brady, Mayfield, Jimmy G, Daniel Jones, Geno, Bridgewater, Mike White, Heineke, Lamar, Minshew, Rush
WR: Agholor, Shepard, Chark, Marvin Jones, Jakobi Meyers, JuJu, Mack Hollins, Mecole Hardman, Equanimeous St. Brown, Slayton
TE: Gesicki, Schultz, Evan Engram, Tonyan, Irv Smith
OL: Kelce, Orlando Brown Jr. KC, Saffold Buff
D/ ST: Quinn, Fletcher Cox, Clowney, Patrick Peterson, Tremaine Edmunds, Kyle Van Noy
K: Crosby, Gould, Zuerlein, Greg Joseph, Maher
What will FA’s do this offseason?
Lamar Jackson QB
Where Lamar Jackson lands is the most important domino in the free agency market, there are some incredible RB’s out there but many in my opinion won’t leave their system and none have the potential playoff catapulting impact of Lamar Jackson. These are the 3 teams most likely to sign Lamar.
The Baltimore Ravens: The Ravens still have a healthy amount of cap space to potentially pay Lamar but terms not being met at the beginning of the year should show that Lamar is wanting a large and heavily guaranteed contract. If Lamar sticks with the ravens I think they get worse. They have barely enough cap to pay an average QB salary and in attempting to sign Lamar they’ll be forced to cut several big names on their defense and several role players to keep the team as close to its current form as possible. And if I was Lamar I’d also want the team to grab some WR talent, which the team doesn’t have the cap space for and the pickings of unrestricted FA WR’s is slim and not one WR available is talented enough on his own to fix this issue. If I had to bet I’d say Lamar is leaving the Ravens but it’s hard to turn down Coach Harbugh who funnels his whole team around Lamar.
The Atlanta Falcons: What are Lamar’s strengths and what are his current team's weaknesses. The Ravens lack the money needed to pay him and WR help and only have a mediocre to bad RB squad to help shoulder the weight and help chew up the clock. Atlanta has the second highest available cap space and is 20 million over third place so the money is there. Lamar has a good long ball arm but he lacks precision and relies on speedster’s in the raven’s offense to make up the difference, in Atlanta you have a star rookie WR in London who is touted as the next Keenan Allen with his size and jump ball ability, and the greatest TE prospect out of College in years. Lamar’s connection to Mark Andrew’s is great but can you imagine the electric connection Lamar and Pitts could have. Pitt’s had over a thousand yard’s receiving in his rookie year with Matt Ryan as his QB, Mark Andrews has had one season over thousand yards in his career. Finally, the RB duo of a young stud in Allgier and a mix back great in Cordarelle Patterson would be far and away better than any RB’s in Baltimore under Lamar’s career. And moving from one of the toughest divisions in the NFL to the easiest would not only be an easier route to the playoffs but one where Lamar might be well rested throughout the season and suffer less injuries. This is my predictive team, a worry for Lamar could be poor coaching or not a lot of depth in the star positions but I think ATL with Lamar would attract any great potential coach and even though there are no star WRs in unrestricted FA a player like Jakobi Meyer or JuJu are potentially great WR 2s for the star wide receiver Drake London could become. Final thought is the potential vibes, the amount of Black swag and pride of an ATL Falcons team led by Lamar Jackson and potentially coached by Eric Bienamy.
The Jets: This team lacks the 2023 cap space I think needed to sign Lamar but have the 13th most free space in 2024. This team has the best coaching out of Lamar’s prospects and by far the best defense and the easiest Super Bowl odds. Breece Hall and him could be the most dominant running game in the league, all that applies for Drake London I see in Garret Wilson maybe to an even higher degree. The Jets and Giants battle could be insane and would be great media but I just don’t think the money works out for Lamar to be in green.
Big Names Same Places
Saquon: The Giants have plenty of cap and I think Saquon won't bounce when it’s finally looking good
Josh Jacobs: The raiders still have enough cap to fit in a healthy contract for Jacobs and the current coaching staff seems to be putting him to his full potential I doubt could be replicated in another team
Pollard: Zeke’s contract is ending 2023 and Pollard has shown some real strength on the Cowboys, I think he may take a large contract knowing Zeke will fall to his back up next year and could retire/leave in 2024 to make Pollard the workhorse back. Only problem is that they don’t have great cap space so if they overpay for OBJ and try to skimp on Pollard he may bounce. I think a potential landing zone for him is a 20+ million dollar contract with the Denver Broncos, a 1 2 punch of him and a potentially great but often injury ridden Javontae Williams is the type of investment needed to make the Russ offense more dynamic and make an over paid contract work out for the broncos. A stout run game helps also limit the potent offenses in the division and could allow them to cut some good but unneeded defensive contracts and still get a similar performance.
Sleeper FA Hits
Panthers New RB: The league is definitely leaning even heavier into a dual RB dynamic and with Diontae Foreman leaving/ being cut, a pairing with a good young RB in Chuba Hubbard is a necessity for a team wanting a rookie QB to play from day one. The Panthers have a decent amount of cap space but not loads but if they wish to spend a large portion of that available cap on a RB Miles Sanders could be a great young talent for them, if they are looking to save up a little and not commit too heavy Damien Harris or Devin Singletary are relatively young former workhorse backs that could carry a large running between the tackles type of load share while Hubbard continues his pass catching RB style that has recently been successful with his pairing with Diontae Foreman. I’m going to go with Singletary as he might be the best for a cheap contract for the Panthers.
What to make of Kareem Hunt?: The Browns are desperate to part ways with some contracts after the Watson trade, the problem is that no teams took him during the deadline last year. I think he can’t be a brown but what team can he be on, potentially a far too big of a contract for a bruiser back and the teams that might need a second back are the ones with bruisers already on their rosters. Look for teams that need to add a wrinkle to their offense to take them to the next level. If he’s paid well the teams most likely to grab him are the Ravens ( I don’t think if Lamar leaves he comes here), Chiefs return?, or the steelers have enough cap and a potential nasty combo with Najee but the Steelers are in division. Or the Broncos could replay shooting for a top tier talent like going for Rodgers but getting Russ and shooting to get Pollard and end up with Kareem Hunt. The Steelers would be his best match in my opinion but I don’t think the Browns trade in the division so I’ll go with the Broncos.
Jimmy G is the new Joe Nameth: If the Jets can almost make it to the playoffs with missing their breakout star in Breece Hall half the year, mess around with the Zach Wilson experiment, and be in one of the toughest divisions I think that rocking the boat to much by changing your whole culture around Lamar is not the right move. It’s not a slight against Lamar but he requires an offense to be tailored around him but Jimmy G is used to himself only being a cog in an offensive machine. When you have a great defense and run game the last thing you want is quick drives that end with 0 points, Jimmy G’s style is the antithesis of this and lends strength to strength.
Wrap up of remaining FAs:
RB’s
Jamaal Williams stays with the lions
Mostert stays with Dolphins but could be replaced by rookie rb
Foreman is retired
Montgomery stays with bears but takes a back seat to Khalil Herbert and Fields
Scott and Perine stay as back ups
Sanders stays as eagle
Harris is a patriot but Stevenson takes a more dominant role
QB’s
Geno stays with Seahawks but they draft his replacement
Same goes for Goff but these are next year situations
Mayfield stays with Rams
Danny Dimes has earned a decent contract for the Giants
Mike White stays with Jets
Rush and Bridgewater stay irrelevant
Heineke as Washington Red Hawgs franchise QB
Minshew to the Colts as Matt Ryan’s Replacement
WR
Most stay with current teams
Jakobi Meyers and Mack Hollins to the Falcons
DJ Chark to the Giants
Somebody on the giants WR core is getting the Melvin Gordon treatment
Misc.
Eagles D loses some veterans possibly to the Texans
Bears spend heavy on O Line Vets
Greg Joseph bungles in postseason and gets cut
Running Backs End of Season Standing
S+
Chubb (Browns)
CMC (49ers)
S
Ekler (Chargers)
Saquon (Giants)
Derrick Henry (Titans)
A
Kenneth Walker (Seahawks)
Josh Jacobs (Raiders)
Pollard (Cowboys/ Broncos still same rank)
B+
Dalvin Cook (Vikings)
Johnathon Taylor (Colts)
Breece Hall (Jets)
Etienne (Jags)
B-
Allgeier (Falcons)
Mixon (Bengals)
Aaron Jones (Packers)
Rhamondre Stevenson (Pats)
C+
Dameon Pierce (Texans)
Zeke (Cowboys)
Najee Harris (Steelers)
Pachecho (Chiefs)
James Conner (Cards)
Singletary (Panthers)
Miles Sanders (Eagles)
Javontae Williams* (Broncos stick with rank even with Pollard addition)
Kareem Hunt (Broncos?)
C-
Miami RB (Dolphins)
Swift (Lions)
Jamaal Williams (Lions)
D
Khalil Herbert (Bears)
Montgomery (Bears)
Rachaad White (Buccs)
Leonard Fournette (Buccs)
Brian Robinson (Red Hawgs)
James Cook (Bills) 35. AJ Dillon (Packers)
Quarterbacks End of Season Standing
S+
Josh Allen (Bills)
Hurts (Eagles)
Fields (Bears)
S
Mahomes (Chiefs)
Burrow (Bengals)
Lamar (Falcons)
A
Tua (Dolphins)
Trevor Lawrence (Jags)
B+
Herbert (Chargers)
Deshaun Watson (Browns)
C+
Jimmy G (Jets)
Kyler (Cards)
Kirk Cousins (Vikings)
Daniel Jones (Giants)
Goff (Lions)
Geno Smith (Seahawks)
D
Derek Carr (Raiders)
Trey Lance/ Brock Purdy (49ers)
Dak (Cowboys)
Kenny Pickett (Steelers)
Heineke (Red Hawgs)
Jordan Love (Packers)
Texans Rookie QB (Texans...)
Russel Wilson (Broncos)
Minschew (Colts)
F
Mac Jones (Pats)
Tannehill (Titans)
Jameis Winston (Saints)
Sam Darnold (half way through season replaced by Rookie QB) (Panthers)
Buccs Rookie QB (Buccs)
Baker Mayfield (Rams)
T. Huntley (Ravens)
Wide Receivers End of Season Standing
S+
Justin Jefferson (Vikings)
Tyreek Hill (Dolphins)
Davantae Adams (Raiders)
S
Steffon Diggs (Bills)
Jamarr Chase (Bengals)
Jaylen Waddle (Dolphins)
AJ Brown (Eagles)
A+
Amon-Ra (Lions)
Hopkins (Cards)
A-
Garret Wilson (Jets)
Drake London (Falcons)
Amari Cooper (Browns)
B
Ceedee Lamb (Cowboys)
DK Metcalf (Seahawks)
Tyler Lockett (Seahawks)
Devontae Smith (Eagles)
Keenan Allen (Chargers)
C+
Terry Mclaurlin (Red Hawgs)
Aiyuk (49ers)
Tee Higgins (Bengals)
Jameson Williams (Lions)
Kirk (Jags)
Calvin Ridley (Jags)
JuJu Smith Schuster (Chiefs)
Jakobi Meyers (Falcons)
C-
Gabe Davis (Bills)
Tee Higgins (Bengals)
Kupp (Rams) (I think he’ll be injured in the first few weeks and so Stafford will be too)
Deebo (49ers)
Christian Watson (Packers)
Mike Williams (Chargers)
Quentin Johnson, TCU rookie (Texans)
Zay Jones (Jags)
Olave (Saints)
Treylon Burks (Titans)
Sutton (Broncos)
DJ Moore (Panthers)
Hollywood Brown (Cards)
Pickens (Steelers)
Odell (Cowboys)
D+
Tyler Boyd (Bengals)
Allen Lazard (Packers)
Thielen (Vikings)
Mike Evans* (Buccs could be traded for picks and salary balance)
Jahan Dotson (Red Hawgs)
Curtis Samuel (Red Hawgs)
Nico Collins (Texans)
Diontae Johnson (Steelers)
Jerry Jeudy (Broncos)
Equanimeous St. Brown (Bears)
F
Mecole Hardman (Chiefs)
Michael Pittman (Colts)
Darenell Mooney (Bears)
Devin Duvernay (Ravens)
Agholor (Pats)
Retired Tier
Tom Brady (Goat)
Stafford (Rams Killer)
Rodgers (Prison)
Joe Flacco (Hall of Meh)
Michael Thomas (cash out before expectations)
Arrest Tier
Alvin Kamara (Prison)
Tight Ends End of Season Standing
S+
Kelce (Chiefs)
S
Hockenson (Vikings)
Pitts (Falcons)
Kittle (49ers)
A
Goedert (Eagles)
B
Njoku (Browns)
Waller (Raiders)
Freiermuth (Steelers)
Kmet (Bears)
Mark Andrews (Ravens)
C
Schultz (Drops a tier and replace with starting Cowboys TE if not resigned) (Cowboys)
Daniel Bellinger (Giants)
Juwan Johnson (Saints)
Hurst (Bengals)
Evan Engram (Jags)
Zack Ertz (Cards)
D
Hunter Henry (Pats)
Fant (Seahawks)
Knox (Bills)
Higbee (Rams)
Tight End Purgatory
Everyone else
Taysom Hill
Kickers
Tucker
Koo
Meyers
Maher
Mcpherson
Folk
Kaimi Fairbairn
Gano
McManus
Cade York
D/ST End of Season Standing
S+
Dallas
49ers
S
Titans
Jets
Steelers
A
Panthers
Commanders
Broncos
Eagles
B
Bills
Dolphins
Buccs
Seahawks
Browns
Chargers
C
Pats
Ravens
Texans
Falcons
Colts
Giants
Bengals
D
Jags
Cards
Chiefs
Bears
F
Lions
Packers
Vikings
Raiders
Saints
Rams
S+= 6.5, S= 6, A=5, B=4, C=3, D=2, F=1
Playoffs According to Fantasy Value for 2023-2024
2024 Draft According to Fantasy Value
Rams
Saints
Ravens
Colts
Pats
Buccs
Panthers
Packers
Texans
Giants
Titans
Red Hawgs
Raiders
Cards
Broncos
Jets
Bears
Steelers
Lions
Chiefs
Vikings
Seahawks
Chargers
Jaguars
Browns
Bills
Cowboys
Eagles
Dolphins
Falcons
Bengals
49ers
Talking Points on Player’s Rankings
Chubb
The constant argument to why Chubb is not a number one running back each year is his lack of touchdown opportunities as they kept being poached by Kareem Hunt. The Browns are soon to be in cap hell. Surprisingly they couldn’t pawn off Hunt at the trade deadline this year but great depth contracts like these are the first to be cut in these cap crunching times the Browns will soon be in. I think the Browns offense may go through a hiccup at the beginning of the year of trying to force the Deshaun magic be the sole carrying part of their offense but hopefully this rusty and bad play design has already been shown to not work in a far tougher division as we’ve seen through the final stages of the 2022 regular season. The Browns have a dynamic QB who has some decision making issues, an all star run game, a strong WR 1 but only role guys outside of that, a powerful tight end, and a potentially great defense. This exact formula has already proven to be highly effective in the Dallas Cowboys post Cooper Rush, once when the coaches saw the effectiveness of this offensive scheme they stopped trying to pretend as if Dak was Josh Allen and let him just command the engine and take advantage of the weak points in the defense after they start flooding the box for the run. Zeke and Pollard in this offense were 14 and 7 while trading off the lion share of the offense each week.
This league is a copycat league and if the Browns can pull off this transition for their offensive scheme can you imagine any other position that would benefit more than a single great back in Chubb. I think the worries that Chubb isn’t a consistent ball catching back or that Deshaun might poach some rushing TD’s are fair concerns but I think the top 5 RB’s all have similar level concerns to make me question their legitimacy to the number one overall crown. CMC could be insane but that offense is so loaded the TD’s could rarely fall his way and there’s a chance injuries return, Ekler and the Chargers always seem to be missing that extra spark to put them in any number 1 conversation, King Henry is the oldest of the group and he could be running into tougher defenses than he’s had to most years, and the Giant’s lack any wrinkles to their offense making it easier for good defenses to game plan him out far easier than any other player in this list. For me the top 5 are nearly interchangeable but CMC and Chubb’s offenses have the potential to fuel their rocket ships to the moon and with a number 1 overall potential pick you want a moon shot.
Kenneth Walker
Out of the sophomore running backs I believe Kenneth Walker has the strongest potential to become a top 5 running back. Walker has a consistent style of bruising and wearing down defenses and late into the 4th quarter he’s able to gash them, this ability to turn it up a notch in the 4th quarter is one of the easiest signifiers to track the talent of an RB. I think his bruiser style will only improve as he’s had a full offseason of NFL caliber strength and conditioning to help elevate his game. He may not have the insane pass catching ability of Breece Hall but he is decently involved in the passing game and most importantly Walker has a 90 percent snap share when a running back is on the field for the Seahawks so he’s shown to have good pass blocking abilities which can open up into easy dump off yardage. It may be a risk not many are willing to take draft them as their RB 1 but I think if you’re a later draft player and are able to draft him and a known commodity WR 1 or double on RB’s and get a veteran hopefully to the caliber of Dalvin Cook you’d have a draft winning formula.
Taylor
Johnathon Taylor was nearly an mvp candidate 2 years ago, but followed that great break out season with a real stinker. Injured 7 out of 18 weeks and only surpassed 100 yards rushing in a game twice this year even with getting a large snap count and most weeks passing 20 rushing attempts. I don’t think Taylor is a terrible player but has just fallen down to his appropriate level in the low tier of top ten rbs. It’s hard to say how the colts will look next year but it’s fair to guess that it will be difficult process in meshing into a new system and the division seemingly going in the direction of being far more competitive, with high flying offenses in the jags the run stopping greats in Tennessee and the Texans being a wild card with several high draft picks and loads of cap space. JT had the reliability of never getting injured so if he can maintain his health he is appropriately 10 overall but I believe he could drop to 15th or lower if these niggling injuries continue to plague him, he might turn out to be a steal as an RB 2 or RB 1 if you wish to go high on QB, Kelce, or have the opportunity to take 2 top 5 WRs.
Buyer beware as it should be remembered that JT’s near MVP run came on the year Derrick Henry was hurt half the season and still managed to be top ten in rushing yards. The potential emergence of Josh Jacobs and star rookie running backs were also not a worry that year, 10 might seem like a slight to JT’s talents but think of the new wave of competition he now has to face and ask if you are willing to take a potentially banged up JT inside the disaster of the Colt’s franchise over other talents.
Breece Hall
The Jets could be insane next year; a top 5 defense, a game manager qb to prevent costly turnovers, a strong wr core led by Garrett Wilson, and the engine of it all could be the insane ability of Breece Hall. Kinda crazy that the jets managed to draft a stronger, cheaper, and better ball catcher version of Le'veon Bell. The primary concern is the knee injury Hall got early into last season will it be fully healed and importantly will Breece Hall trust it enough to still make dynamic moves? I think him being really young and the injury happening early into the season will help immensely and I think a more well rounded offense should lighten the volume. Hall should be able to still put up great numbers with his pass catching ability to help counteract a smaller rushing volume. I think a potentially more worrisome concern for Hall’s fantasy output has been the emergence of Zononvan Knight; he's nowhere near as skilled but a Jets franchise desperate for post season success may incorporate a more mixed backfield to help their young stars' health.
I believe the Jets coaching staff understand the strengths of their offense and will desire a play style reminiscent of the pre CMC 49ers and the Tennessee Titans, a smash mouth and clock controlling playstyle. They have the defense and running game to do it and almost more importantly they have 2 of the most dynamic offenses in the league in their division and removing the ball from Tua’s and Allen’s hands is the best way to combat these explosive offenses. Look for a very high run snap share for the jets offense which may turn a healthy Breece Hall into an easy top 3 RB on the year, but a strong mix in with Zonovan Knight may limit him to only top 5 and worries of health for me drop him a few more places down to 11. Breece has the ability to be an insane RB 1 for your fantasy team but health concerns and wildcard picks of top 5 WR’s and top 3 QBs and Kelce might allow him to fall to a person on the turn in the snaking draft who should snatch a consistent Vet RB and have an incredible running back core maybe even play to you strength and ignore a WR 1 if you manage to get that tandem and draft high on a flex RB, allowing for a great floor to your team and some potential high trade value for future endeavors.
Ettienne
Ettiene was limited his first year by injuries, his second by the brief stardom of James Robinson and still managed to by the end of year be a top 20 RB and has now secured a rare workhorse back snap share volume. This Jags offense looks incredible and hopefully can be seen in the playoffs on a consistent basis. I do worry about how often this team enters shootouts and its limit on Ettiene’s rushing attempts but he has a consistent role as a pass catching back and the route running skills of WR. The problem with the Jags offense in the sake of fantasy is their depth of talent and a coaching style that loves to fuel the hot hand in their offense. I think if you were to draft anyone high in this Diet KC Chiefs offense you should do T-Law and Ettiene. Everyone else has the potential for far too low floors. If you are to draft a Jags player the somehow consistently useful narrative of former college players apply to Ettiene and T-Law so maybe when things get tough he’ll be the first choice,
Ettiene managed to be 18th in standard fantasy rankings last year with only managing 4 total touchdowns, 2 of which came in one game. These are the types of players you love to look for as TD’s for everyone but Jamaal Williams are not a guarantee and their low scoring may allow you to draft them as a steal. Similar situation to other now sophomore RB’s that the best advice is to pair them with a reliable vet but I think Ettiene’s potential ceiling has it more scratching RB 2 or an incredible flex, if you’re the guy drafting Allen and Kelce in the first two rounds Ettienne might be the saving grace of your weak RB choices, draft Ettienne as a secondary piece to your favorite round 1 star you managed to get and he could be a real spark to your teams volatility allowing you to compete and on some weeks crush the big boy teams in your league.
Mixon
As a former Mixon fantasy owner I can tell you that he has never felt like an RB 1 for me all season. He has a really high floor as he’s in one of the best offenses in the league and has a healthy work load and a fair amount of receiving work. Problem is that since his concussion late in the season his once insane amount of volume has turned into a very middle of the pack workshare. I think the Bengals have noticed that their running game is as effect with a mix of Perine in the role and are relying less on Mixon to do everything. This O-Line seems to be growing better and better at pass protection as Burrow became one of the least sacked QBs in the second half of the season but the run game fails to be explosive and seems to be there only to add a wrinkle for defenses to deal with as the passing game takes the lead. I think Mixon and Perine will fall into a role similar to Akers and Henderson on the Rams super bowl run. Mixon has more talent and has a far higher floor than any other RB listed in this wrap up but outside his monstrous 5 TD game he had no games above 16 points. He’s a perfect RB 2 or extremely valuable flex where he has a high floor and being the lead back on the Bengals Offense he always has a great chance to put up monster games. If you want to take a risk on your round 1 pick like a potential star sophomore RB like Ettienne or somebody like Kelce he’s the perfect player to add a floor to your team while you reach for those ceiling exploding players. I think Dalvin Cook is a far better version of this wily vet RB pick up as the Vikings are in a weaker running defense division and I think the emergence of Hockenson next year allows for Dalvin Cook to perform better, a strong run game compliments tight ends the best and vice versa as defenses have to take every snap on the back foot when your star TE lines up with O-Line as the threat of them breaking from their run protection to go deep needs to be respected by defenses.
Aaron Jones and Najee
Both Jones and Najee to me are good RB’s who need a spark to their offense to help unlock their potential. The potential in division trade for Kareem Hunt would make a very a stellar back field to help their young QB not have to put Flacco on the Jets numbers to compete, though this trade seems unlikely to happen to me an added bonus for this hypothetical is the presumed firing of OC Matt Canada at the end of the year for the Steelers and a new OC might push to spend big on a free agent signing to help this sub par defense come alive. Najee would look better in this situation on the field but would reduce his volume, fewer but better touches adds a lot more volatility to his fantasy scoring but should on the whole improve him to a stellar RB 2 instead of a decent flex player like he was this previous season.
Jones is in a similar situation where he is reliant on the team to commit to a young QB in Jordan Love. If this happens the running game should be used a lot more and with the option of QB Draw plays with a more mobile QB in Love it should make this run game far more exciting. With Rodgers this team seems to be catering towards the passing game a lot with their newly found star WR in Christian Watson which has made Jones the only consistently usable RB in Green Bay with his supreme pass catching ability. If Rodgers does retire as I think he will this backfield will be used a whole lot more but unfortunately for Aaron Jones stock holders this will also increase the role of the Quad Father. Jones will benefit the most from this run pass qb draw play book with his pass catching ability allowing for easy screens this offensive style creates but his rushing volume will be hampered. He’s a potential RB 1 for those WR heavy draft owners but his potential volatility in this role doesn’t make him a great piece to rely on as a locked-in RB stud. This new Love and rushing lead Green Bay also makes me drop Watson into C tier even with his crazy potential.
Lions RBs and Bears RBs and Fields
The puzzling case of effective rushing offenses and no true number one back on either team. In the lions we have one of the most effective goal line scorers in the league in jamaal williams and a potentially great open field runner in Swift whose career has been so mired by injury that both the Lions and Fantasy owners cant trust him to be a workhorse back. I do believe Williams will return in the offseason, and the offense will look similar to how it does now with a heavy lean to the passing game and a jamaal williams led snap share (60/40). But the inclusion of Jameson Williams has me worried that Lions might go even more pass heavy. The need to compete in a high scoring division with poor defenses might incentivize this more with every divisional game going in the direction of a shoot out. Swift might be robbed of too many touchdown opportunities, and Williams might not have enough volume for his bruiser style to make either great options to rely on.
Prior to Khalil Herbert's injury the Bears started to use the two backs in a switching drives mentality. Herbert was far more effective with his snaps which I saw many fantasy writers falsely correlate his less touches to Montgomery as a sign of him being an RB 2 in the system, it was just that Herbert needed less touches as they reached scoring yardage in less touches as he was more effective. I think there’s a small chance that they trade away Montgomery to free up even more available cap to overpay for O-line men and entice trades on players who are not unrestricted free agents. I don’t know if the Bears need to do so as they have even more cap than the Jags had when they went on their spending spree. But if they don’t trade away Montgomery I still believe they use him and Herbert as nearly even snap share backs and possibly lean into Herbert more as the rusher and Montgomery as the passing down back. The one big problem is that Fields is the best rusher on the team and may take a fair amount of snaps away from these two already split time backs and ruin their fantasy usage. I don’t really know what to make of the Bears huge cap space and the sudden emergence of Fields. Fields will be entering his 3rd year and obviously needs some O-Line help which they’ll grab in free agency and the draft. But there’s still so much available cap that they may try to go big and get disgruntled WRs like Mike Evans. If I had to really guess I’m going the boring answer and say they pick up O-line, a defensive star or two (Tremaine Edmons), and save a lot of cap to get Fields on a large contract at the end of next year as he’s a star talent with a very physical playstyle who rightfully will demand a huge contract if he even comes close to maintaining this level of play in the upcoming 2 years.
Long story short look for these guys as a flex pick up and especially look their way if they somehow fall into the waiver pile.
Final note, it seems so bizarre to me that a guy drafted for his mobility and toughness was rarely used in the run game in his first year and the first half of his second year. We can maybe chalk up the first year to the weird play calling of Matt Nagy but where’s this 180 come from with his new coach Eberflus. Could it be that Fields isn’t great at adjusting to a new system. On game day we see him throw some bad interceptions and most are so far off that a healthy blame can go towards miscommunication and play execution. Him getting a whole new offense of players during this free agency might not be the best for his growth as a QB. Purely speculation but this sudden 180 can’t purely be coaches going “Oh yeah he was a great runner in College lets try that!”
2023 top 10 draft
I don’t really watch college football so the players themselves I don’t really know
Care if they switch around due to better talent. This is more a prediction of what these bad teams' most glaring needs and what I know their drafting style tends towards things like cultural identity like how the Ravens and the Cardinals draft best available linebacker most years if they don’t have a clear need.
QB Bryce Young- Houston Texans
It’s not hard to predict that the Texans are desperate for a QB to lead their young squad out of the dredges of their post Watson years. Young seems to be the consensus number 1 due to his talent but I would add that the Texans have been critiqued for drafting more for cultural chemistry and locker room building than the best player available but luckily Bryce happens to be both. Alabama QBs seem to always lack a wow factor towards their game but are highly coachable and level headed leaders on the average Jalen Hurts being a prime example. I think the Texans should worry that if they are planning on bringing in a new coach that a rookie QB and a rookie head coach might be too little experience and stability for a team that seems to be competitive right now but lacks a knockout punch to compete with most teams.
DI Jalen Carter- Chicago Bears
There seems to be lack of a stud CB in this draft class so the Bears using their huge cap space capitol to entice top secondary talents already in the league like Tremaine Edmunds and to pair with this veteran talent getting a raw talent in the interior D-Line can help create pressure for costly turnovers. In my proposed 2023 season the Packers lean into the run with Jordan Love at the helm, and the Lions are already known for one of the best offensive lines in the league an interior crasher like Carter would be a great fit for their team. Plus there doesn’t seem to have been a complete bust yet from that Championship winning Georgia D-Line and Bears need some sure fire talent on their team as they are missing in almost every department except QB.
QB Will Levis- Seattle Seahawks
I believe that the Seahawks and Lions are bound to be at least middle of the pack contenders for the next few years and both should take this opportunity of their traded high draft picks being in range for a top tier qb talent. Levis seems to be the more physically impressive but unknown talent playing in a weaker division and having a poor O-Line in front of him. He has the benefit of a great Vet in Geno who the team will resign and I doubt Geno after his rocky career will refuse to be a great mentor to Levis.
Levis has a great arm and is tough in picking up extra yardage on his legs. A great O-Line and a great RB in Kenneth Walker should reduce pressure on the rookie QB and allow him to huck it deep for Lockett and DK. The Seahawks might have just traded away Russ at his worst and gotten a younger version of him. We could be seeing the return of the Lynch/ Russ seahawks under Walker/ Levis, Pete Carroll’s done it again.
Edge Myles Murphy- Arizona Cardinals
Watt just retired and you need to fill that hole in your team but this ship seems so filled with holes that any pick could be an improvement but they're likely to be back at this same position again. Go with seemingly sure talent in this QB filled draft class and hope you can find some star next year. I’ve read rumors they may pick up a RB but this high of a pick feels like wasting it on an RB when you have Conner you need to have a Barkley like talent in the draft.
QB C.J Stroud- Indianapolis Colts
The Panthers are sweating after this pick, but we’ll get to them in a second. The Colts are in desperate need of a game one starter, Stroud has led one of the most effective offenses in College Football and a lot of this comes from his good timing and pocket movement. He works best with slant plays which is great for Pittman’s and Alec Pierce’s strengths. I just worry that his comparison to Goff in being a game manager may dissuade the Colts after the disaster that was the Matt Ryan year. I think the whole team shit bricks this last year so a guy who is accurate and makes few mistakes that could lead to picks is what this good defense needs most.
Edge, Will Anderson Jr- Atlanta Falcons
The Offense is sorted in my hypothetical Lamar world, but the Falcons Defense seems to be lacking in pressure on opposing QB’s. They have some great run stuffers in Grady Jarrett and Abdullah Anderson but in total this team has 19 sacks, Nick Bosa has 17.5. That’s pitiful in a division with the panthers carousel, Andy Dalton, and old man Brady. An elite edge rusher that I’ve seen at 2nd overall in a lot of drafts would be great for this team.
CB, Joey Porter Jr.- Detroit Lions
I think the Lions may be in the hunt for a QB but with the top 3 available off the board already there’s a chance the team doesn’t try the gamble and goes for a definite need in secondary help. They go with Porter as he seems to be more of the ball hawk in the draft and with Hutchinson helping with pressure to the QB and rival division opponents like the Bears and Vikings who have qbs that make some costly mistakes it's best to capitalize on opponents weaknesses and remove yours in the secondary.
QB, Anthony Richardson- Carolina Panthers
Will the Panthers go for the Cam Newton type talent, I think ideally not but their performance recently and chance to get to the playoffs makes their position difficult. We know the Colts and Texans need a QB and I think both are wanting Young and Stroud so the PAnthers must trade up to get one and with the Cardinals litany of issues they could be an ideal trade position partner for the Panthers to grab Stroud. They have no real veteran QB to help the raw talent that is Richardson but maybe a heavy run game and mix in of Richardson can make for a more bruiser version of the Bears offense. If you were there panthers would you like to look like you’re retreading a one year great run with Newton or try to go for Hooker or draft up to get Stroud, I don’t know.
CB, Keelee Ringo- Georgia
Carr’s poor performance has benched him at the end of last season but Davantae Adams came to this team for Carr. I think you have to keep him for next year and hope for a better start to next year and a much needed pass defensive piece like Ringo can allow you to sneak into the playoffs. The Raiders also seem to always draft speedsters from the number one school and Ringo fits that model as well.
Wr, Quentin Johnson- Texans
The race for QBs has allowed a premiere prospect like Johnson to fall and the desire to give your young QB a star WR is a formula all teams will try to follow after the Chase draft. Also can you imagine how happy this Texans front office would be if they could get a good WR from a christian texas school. Ding Ding Ding Jesus has returned to the locker room in Houston.
Hockenson retires Thielen
The previously held belief was that TEs will take tell year 2 on a new team to be fully cohesive with the offense. Hockenson and Evan Engram may be the exception to this idea but it’s not unfair that these TEs still had their hiccups even while putting up great numbers. Since Hockenson has joined Minnesota he has had an average of 10 targets each game while Thielen has had a very more volatile average of 7 targets and a far worse completion rate then Hockenson probably due to poor last second throws by Cousins as Thielen is known for having some of the best hands in the league.
So since Hockenson’s arrival it’s clear he’s the new number 2 option to Jefferson and from watching him this year he is far more often the dump down option than any throw to Dalvin Cook. I believe that Hockenson will only become more and more incorporated in the passing game and his blocking prowess will allow for the growth of Dalvin Cook’s game as defenses will always be on the backfoot wondering if Hock will attempt to pancake them or go flying past them for a 7 yard curl in the middle of the field. I have no doubt Thielen will still have his games as he’s still a great talent but his fantasy relevance has seemingly been retired.
Eagles D fall off
It seems that a lot of great vets on the Eagles D-line are unrestricted Free Agents and the drafting of Jordan Davis shows their willingness to part with some of these players. I think the signing of Odell, 2nd year of a Daboll led Giants, and a frisky commanders offense is a tough division to be consistently great on defense against especially if a lot of stabilizing vets leave. The Eagles also had one of the easiest schedules in the league allowing this great offense to look even better. This team is still going to be great but instead of being top 3 in the league they could easily fall to a lower top 10 fantasy defense.
Jags D and Panthers D
Olokun is the leader of the Jags defense and leads the league in tackles in 2022, Josh Allen and Travon Walker are proving to be an impressive front and besides Derrick Henry there’s really no stars in their division they have to face. I think a problem that could occur is that as this Jags Offense seems to have the potential to score huge they open the floodgates for good teams to join them in shootouts. The Dolphins D is one of the best coached in the League but as their offense got more pass heavy and speedy with tyreek they can sometimes lose the ability to control the clock effectively, a similar situation has already started to show in some close games with top teams this season and could become more common with the offseason additions this team is adding. I think this D could be top ten but look into their schedule first and be wary of a quickly improving division in my eyes.
The panthers D are in an opposite situation to me in that I believe their floor to be exceedingly high but I’d be surprised if they have the ceiling of any of the top D’s. Positioned in the worst offensive division in the league (even with my hypothetical Lamar to the Falcons) they won’t need to worry often about high yardage or points scored against. Jaycee Horn leads this extremely young unit and I believe that the Panthers will continue the pattern of building the assets around a young QB for 2024’s draft. A currently above average run game could be improved greatly with the signing of one of the many unrestricted FA RB’s this off season and allow for a Titans/49ers game plan of heavy clock control allowing for fewer opportunities for this defense to be scored on. I don’t know if they’ll have loads of sacks or interceptions but fantasy D is more about restricting the opponents offense as the negatives pile up quickly.
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