Ease of Schedule
End of the regular season has come and many teams have the same question, am I supposed to be in this bracket or did my schedule move me to a bracket I don't belong? I'm here to answer this question with facts, logic, and only a hint of bias. I'll be going in reverse order of strength of schedule to build tension, so 10 had the easiest schedule and 1 had the most difficult. If you don't understand/trust my math scroll past all the rankings and see the tables that I based my decisions off (it's like a scientific report...I need to make my degree feel worthwhile)
Also my editor said all of this math is boring so I added some Nicotine products that match your schedule vibes.
10. Slant Boys 10
This team is the Jeff Fischer St. Louis Rams, a low output of APE-EW, but somehow they’re able to win against a lot of top scoring teams yet they also somehow lose to the lowest scoring teams in APE-EW. The highest total of weeks where an opponent fails to hit their average in scoring, helps create a very tiny D.A.A.W.G factor in their opponents. Some prominent injuries hurt their weeks but this was almost exactly balanced out by opponents dealing with similar or worse issues in the Slant Boys matchups. A strong point for their schedule is that half the time this team did face playoff contenders but when you were one point away from having your opponents fail to be competitive 10 out of the 14 weeks it makes for an easy schedule that a better team could have dominated in.
An often overly sweet and easy way to get into the world of Nicc just like this schedule should be an easy breeze to the playoffs for most teams.
9. Jaylen Waddle Fan Club
How does a team riddled with injuries and a point output bad enough to eliminate them in a pure scoring playoff match making manage to instead garner themselves a 500 record and a playoff berth. Simple low tier opponents had tiny D.A.A.W.G energy while facing Brian. Jaylen Waddle Fan Club was the hurdle to a successful season, if you performed consistently at your A.P.E-E.W or out performed it you made it to the playoffs if you didn’t you failed to make it to the big dance, try again next year.
The plain jane cigarrete if you can get into these your into that Nicc at night lifestyle
8. Snuck of my leash
Andy’s schedule is almost the exact opposite of mike’s both faced a large percentage of playoff teams, both high Scheduled Opponent A.P.E-E.W but where mike’s competition fought past their expectations andy’s opponents failed at the same rate as Sully’s to reach their potential. Andy had no direct easy win weeks but like Derek benefitted from each opponent coming to their matchups a little banged up. This is a schedule that a good team could overcome but is a high bar to overcome for the lower tier scoring team, Leash put out this year.
I don't know what these little pods are called but I was told as kid people would cut their gums to have the nic go straight into their blood stream for a stronger high. It also just seems like a cleaner form of dip
7. Washington Sewer Pipes
Faced off 8 out 14 times against non-playoff teams but faced those teams at full strength of roster or near full strength every time, This team had an easier schedule on paper but teams often brought their best shots each week. It just happened that the sewer pipes have been by far the best scoring team in the league. (regular season success/ any given Sunday in playoffs no jinxing for this fella)
The wise man with the pipe your team might be good but this schedule makes them look better just like the refinement of a pipe you're still inhaling cancer but through a fun device!
6. Henry Ruggs Driving School
The Driving School faced off against non-play off teams half the season, first four weeks he scored sub 80 but still managed a 1-3 record. Rookie boom came and from weeks 5-9 came, with all easy above 100 point games and only two opponents going below their APE-EW making for some impressive victories. A tough loss on bye week 10 broke this and then the remaining 4 he went 500 on. This is basically a 500 team with a tough lack of easy opponents but opponents never really going big D.A.A.W.G on them.
The young bloods came through and propelled this team, young people are going for a different herb of satan but it's all still in the family lung obliteration.
5. Zach Wilson's Buddy's Mom
Phil faced off only 5 times to non-playoff teams, but often faced this high number of playoff teams on bad weeks examples being; sewer pipes on bye, week 1 Fan Club mismanagement and missing of soon to be key players, squeaking out a win against a Turd team missing half their star players, a win over Witz without zeke in a close game, a missing wr 1 game in week 9 made for a low outcome but with Chubb’s bye week it allowed for a win over the Leash where it could have been a lose with Chubb’s average points per season in. A good win without Lamar or Chase helps the narrative of “skill not luck” driving this team's record. This is your Minnesota Vikings, a seemingly daunting schedule of heavy weights who on game day turn out to be injured. This team shouldn’t be considered frauds though because a strong point total shows they still did well on their end just that the very high record might have been only possible with an easier schedule, it’s easy to see this team being high middle pack with other’s schedule instead of a dominant second place finish.
A victory cigar is deserved for the team that can win with average schedule can't be ruled too lucky or unlucky you must be good right....right?
4. Hundred Akers Woods
Our team most riddled with injury also had one of the tougher schedules, tough to see. But Witz's teams injuries and low score doesn't impact his difficulty of schedule only making others schedules easier if they face him on bad weeks. Facing more playoff teams than most gives Witz's scheduled opponent's APE-Aw second highest in the league, but over all these teams brought little D.A.A.W.G to most fights. Many in hindsight would dream of 3 match ups with the Turds to help boost their records but having to face the Sewer Pipes twice makes for a balanced shit filed situation.
Tough schedule and tough injuries are almost as gross as mistaking the spit cup for your left out RC Cola
3. MS Sentient Turds
Everyone assume’s Q was unlucky; people assume the schedule must have been tough, a year filled with player let downs, and poor coaching decisions by a clocked out Coach Prime were the plague on this team. But were the assumptions of bad luck true?
Sort of, On the season the Turds had to face playoff bound teams 8 times. And teams over-performed there expected A.P.E-E.W 8 times and had a Clifford sized D.A.A.W.G factor of 100+ for his opponents at one point in the season but the Turds had one of the easiest final stretches of the year. The Turds faced only lower tier scorer’s in his final 5 games and these scorers in all but 1 game underperformed their already low A.P.E-E.W unfortunately the Turd’s managed an only 2-5 record from this easy slate. With a better record in this easy stretch Mississippi’s favorite team could have made the playoffs with their high points scored early on in the season.
Tobacco never leaves you with a good aftertaste, those last few cigs went flying at the end of the night but this morning you're left with the worst tasting cottonmouth.
2. Run CMC
9 of the 14 weeks Run CMC had to face play off opponents and only 2 of those 5 non-play off teams were low tier APE-EW scorers. This creates the perfect environment for their opponents to be big D.A.A.W.Gs. One of the tougher schedules with both record and opponent over-performance makes for one of our toughest schedules, luckily this team had 2 easy win weeks and no “get it over with” weeks which might have been a key part in allowing them to secure a record just barely good enough to enter the playoffs.
dip your pinky into the chew lid and get ready for a long night on the mound with this schedule
1. Benadryl Shadowmen
Only 3 times did the Benadryl Shadowmen face non-playoff teams and 2 out of those 3 weeks these teams far exceeded their APE-EW. The Shadowmen also had no easy win weeks, and even with the highest Scheduled Opponent’s APE-EW these top tier teams still over-performed their high expectations and brought a fair bit of D.A.A.W.G to their matchups. So it’s fair to say this was the toughest schedule but a more interesting question arises, were the Shadowmen doomed to fail?
No I don't think so, even with their tough schedule they were never dominated by their opponents. The Shadowmen’s high for the season was 121.2 an impressive feat but a measure never eclipsed by an opponent in their weekly matchups. So the high points were there for a scrappy team but 8 times the Shadowmen failed to hit their A.P.E-E.W one of the best metrics for a team's wins or losses.
If you can get into the playoffs with this schedule you must be in the weeds with fantasy knowledge, and the work is labor intensive and luck driven. Just like growing your own crop to smoke
I went week by week for each team’s schedule and added the correct opponents APE-EW together and averaged the total to collect the scheduled opponent’s average APE-EW. This system has some inherent flaws as the extreme high and low score teams don’t have to have their average either pulled up or down by their own scores to normalize their opponent’s APE-EW but it’s fairly well balanced.
Your difference is how many points above or below your average opponent's average score should be each week. I had a whopping 17.91 points above my opponents average scores so I could “throw away” those points and still win. The Benadryl Shadowmen had the highest opponent APE-EW and even with the 5th highest average his schedule put him in a losing position. Slant boys over performed as they had the 3rd highest negative difference but finished with a good record. While the Turds had no dawg in them and gave up the advantage of the 4th best difference to finish being tied for worst record.
I don’t know if this really works as the difference is either the exact same or very close for opposing final ranks. My rank at 1 has the same difference as Wahle’s at 10, so either i had as easy a schedule as Wahle’s difficult or this is just how numbers work and math sucks.
Difference of Opponent’s APE-EW and Actual Score each Week Gathered together.
D.A.A.W.G= (Actual Score earned by Opponent Each week- Scheduled Opponent's Averaged APE-EW) repeat for 14 weeks and add together the sum.
Come On! Factor- is the difference between numbers of players you had the benefit of not facing vs the times your key players missing were not matched by an opponent's key players missing. A high Come On! Factor indicates a royal screw job by schedule and injury.
Side note The Turds should have won both easy weeks against the Hundred Akers Wood team but AJ Brown playing a full game and not catching 11 yards made them 1-1
The Weeks Columns are more subjective if you only had one player missing and had a good replacement than it’s not considered that bad, my threshold is usually a minus two Come On! Factor that week. And the reverse applies for easy win weeks.
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