Post Draft Fantasy Stock Exchange

 

Sky Rocketing Stocks

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  I know a few of you were against my idea that Nick Chubb will end the next season as the number 1 running back in fantasy football, but the qb draw and run heavy offense a la zeke rookie dallas year that I believed would be the future for the browns offense seems to be coming to fruition with their offseason pickups. Huge run blocking offense line talents like Dawand Jones and Luke Wypler if molded correctly could make for one of the most imposing offensive lines plus the addition of Cedric Tillman and the trade for Elijah Moore shows that they want big body great blocking WRs as well. And finally the grab of UCLA QB DTR as a back up for Deshaun or potential replacement if Deshaun keeps faltering shows a commitment to an offensive scheme built around the run with a massive o-line, all star running back, and a mobile qb helps facilitate. The one downside is that Kareem Hunt is still on the team but we saw last year that the goal line vulturing seems to have ended for him and he is now purely a change of pace back. Also Chubb is on a potential contract year with his 2024 year having a clause to be easily cut for either a future contract or releasement. 

• Our previous stock was a stock predictively on the rise while Najee's stock in my eyes was falling prior to the draft. But man have the Steelers committed to raising his stock to potential CMC levels. The Steelers traded up to draft LT Broderick Jones in the first round and in the tail ends of the third round got an absolute steal in the monstrously big TE Darnell Washington. This shows a desire to run their offense primarily in 12 personnel using Friermuth and Washington on the edges of the line and Najee in the back ready to walk through the wide open holes this offensive front  provides. Side note look up Pickens and Diontae Johnson block highlights and you'll get hyped for Najee's potential with an improved O-line. The continual growth of Kenny Pickett should help provide relief to Najee not having to be the sole offensive weapon to worry about for defenses.  Najee got 30 less rushing attempts and 170 less rushing yards from his great 2021 season, and his receiving also went down but for me the largest issue is that he got blown up in the backfield so often that he had only had 1 20+ yard play in comparison to his 9  explosive plays in 2021. Najee's talent allowed last season to not be a complete waste as he still preformed at a rb 2 caliber fantasy running back level but with improved qb play and 12 man fronts to make a massive o-line I can see him breaking into the top 5 fantasy rbs at the end of the season. A 12 man front is also a great position for a good blocker and great pass catching TE like Friermuth so his stock seems to also be on the rise particularly with no real competition in receiving volume from Washington but he's still a non-Kelce TE so don't spend to high.

The rich get richer, the Eagles D was poached heavy by rival teams most notably by the 49ers and Lions. The 49ers signing Hargrave is huge addition and makes the 49ers pass rush even scarier and with the Cardinals and to a degree the Rams committing to tanking, a strong defense in a weak division is always a great thing to look for. But surprisingly the Eagles may have even improved their defense through the draft and their shocking ability to resign Slay was huge.  Jalen Carter, Kelee Ringo, Sydney Brown, and Nolan Smith are all top 5 or better players in their respective positions all drafted at steal positions in the draft. This young offensive front has made the Eagles in my eyes the clear favorite D with the 49ers a close second as long as the niners can remain healthy and their offensive preforms well with QB issues. It can be argued which team is 3rd between Dallas, Patriots, and maybe Pittsburgh but it seems hard to argue against their being a large gap between the 49ers/Eagles and the rest of the leagues Defense.

Rising Stocks

I know that it's a little rich for me to say "hey I think this Josh Allen guy is going places" but I think this coming year Allen has the potential to not be just the number 1 fantasy quarterback but dominant the position, to such a high degree that it wont seem crazy to use a first or second round pick on him. Last year we saw a true difference between fantasy teams with top 5 qbs and those without and Allen has the potential to push the scales even farther with an improved offense around him. Trading up to steal a falling Dalton Kincaid who I had rated as the 10th best player in the entire draft is a huge 2nd receiving weapon for the Bills, think Kelce when you see Kincaid. The signing of Damien Harris and the draft steal of the by far best guard in Torrence shows a commitment to a non-Allen based run scheme not seen before. I think the Bills offensively have improved leaps and bounds and Allen will receive the most benefit from this over someone like Diggs who may get more touchdowns but overall volume may diminish. There are two major things holding me back from putting Allen in the rocketship tier besides his already high stock value. 1 the Defenses in his divison have improved greatly, Ramsey with the Dolphins, Gonzalez and Keion White are great steals for the Pats, and the Jets D was great even with having to be out on the field 80 percent of the game with Zack Wilson's stank ass going 3 and out on every drive. and 2 he may have a Hurts dominance effect where he goes crazy for 25+ points in the first half and then the Bills smartly just run down the clock because they're up 45. If the Bills offense can overcome tough inter division D and keep games close enough that Allen has to keep going crazy on the field whoever drafts him has a golden ticket pass to fantasy playoffs.

I don't want to reiterate everything I said on why Sanders could be a great running back next year but the Panthers drafting Bryce Young to me aligns with the desires of the Panthers coaching staff to use Sanders as a pass heavy back in a similar style to Kamara or Fournette and to his old style of play prior to Hurts in Philly. Gibbs lead Alabama in receiving targets last year with Young at the helm. Drafting only one WR, no RBs and a great guard in Zavala shows that the current offensive weapons are the Panthers preferred ones. Miles Sanders may not be the most talented but the Panthers line was so dominant last year that with Chubba hubbard and Diontae Foreman they ran for 320 yards in one game against the Lions it's not hard to get hyped for an improved qb play and a great pass catching rb being behind that great line.

I'm going to raddle off a few sophomore players who are certainly happy with their teams off-season moves. 1st of the Jets even if A-Rod isn't in top form his play should still be greatly better than Zach Wilson making Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall happy and even happier that their team didn't really draft or sign any potential replacement level talent and only signed 2nd tier players like Lazard and Israel Abanikanda a rookie rb. 

Texans WRs Metchie and Nico Collins and RB Dameon Pierce must be happy to actually have some competent qb play as well, I don't believe in Stroud as much as others but his accuracy is the best in the rookie class and these sophomore talents have shown their ability to be stars even with qb play holding them back and maybe with even just ok qb play they could improve greatly.

Ettiene is super sophome with his injured rookie season and should be happy that the Jags picked up a great run block tackle and a bulldozer style rb in the draft in Tank Bigsby. Look for the Jags to lean heavy on the run or dump pass off ability of Etienne next year but keep an eye out for how often Tank gets the goal line work as that was often a struggle for Etienne and the Jags often had to rely on Trevor Lawrence to qb sneak in, definitely something they want to change, because soon Trevor will be the most seasoned QB in their division and could lead them to dominance for the next few years as the division rebuilds with rookie qbs.

Penny Stocks and Stock Neutral

These next few mentions are of players or teams who have improved or only slightly been hampered by new talent. You may want to buy or sell but it's best to just keep a good eye on these stocks as the begin to shift slowly from their current value.

Here's a few penny stock defenses to be on the lookout for on waivers or to the tail end of the draft: The Minnesota Vikings hiring Flores as DC and them drafting some great late round Corners shows their willingness to adapt his agressive style of rushing corners and shifting D-line play. Its a good sign of improvement for a team in a weak offensive division outside of Detroit but their defense was so bad last year it's hard to jump in this early.

The Falcons seemed to have sign every defense FA available this year including highs of Calais Campbell and Jessie Bates, the signing of Bijan and Heineke are good improvements to a rush heavy offense and an improved rushing offense is a great way to make a good defense turn great in FF particularly in a weak division. This is the type of Defense you pick up when injuries or a bye week befalls your usual squad and you'll feel confident in getting  around 6 points. Nothing flashy nothing risky.

The Chargers are a bit more of a swing team the drafting of Tuli and Henly are great pick ups but the lack of any rb signings maybe a bigger sign of improvement for the Chargers. They have basically admitted now to wanting to sign Ekler again and with the additon of Q. Johnston in the Draft there offense should either feel the same or hopefully a bit more dynamic. I felt often as though the chargers were a good D left out far too long on the field by an inconsistent offense. Pray for no injuries and with your great draft pickups this is a team who has some studs on D that can get you pick sixs and multi sack games against bad competition. Problem is that they are in a division with Mahomes. 

    This same thought process can be used for the Denver D as you hope with Sean Payton the offense can improve to help out their great D and are great pickups against non-division opponents. Chargers are a bit more volatile in this role while the Denver floor is much higher.

DJ Moore and Zay Flowers to me are clear WR 1's in their offenses but unfortunately for their fantasy value their QBs are so mobile and impressive that the entire offense runs through them. I bet their will be games where Zay and Moore pop off but it will be tough to pick these players high as they will feel inconsistent especially if their injury prone qbs go down. 

Stock Falling

This is getting really long so I'm just going to plow through some potential falling stocks starting with a few RBs: 

Montgomery has now been clearly given the Jamal Williams role instead of RB 1 with the signing of Gibbs whose rookie contract makes him one of the top paid RBs in the NFL. BTW Gibbs in Detroit could be electric particularly with his wideout rout running potential.

Saquon Barkley, this is only a slight fall but the drafting of Jalyn Hyatt and a back up rb in the 5th round the offense makes it seems that this offense is more tailored towards helping Danny Dimes and ensuring Saquon doesn't get hurt as the offense preforms so much better with him in. His volume should drop but he's still Saquon and maybe his fewer touches will be better ones.

Kenneth Walker and Tyler Lockett/ DK are in a similiar position to Saquon they are the obvious best talents in their positions but really good early round signings of JSN and Charbonnet could eat heavily into their volume. The Seahawks offense as a whole should be much better but it may become like drafting an eagles or jags talent that it will be impossible to tell pre-game who will have the hot hand in the offense and if it will be your drafted FF player. 

Finally Dalvin Cook he's been rumored to be on the chopping block for a while because of his large contract and only ok performance. The signing of Jordan Addison shows a continual effort towards an air raid style of play with JJ as top dawg. If Addison preforms great lookout for this improved offense to have the difficulty of the Eagles/Jags to decide who besides Jefferson is worth drafting or putting in week by week, and Cook is definitely at the bottom of that totem pole.

Besides Justin Fields and maybe DJ Moore I advise staying away from bears players. The rb room seems to be a committee similar to how the Ravens use Lamar as RB 1 and sign no top prospect, I was underwhelmed with their draft particularly for the D, and even with all their cap they didn't swing for the fences on many free agents for their terrible defense.

Stock Crashing

These two guys draft day had to have sucked. Allgier sees the Falcons swing for the best RB prospect sense Saquon out of college in Bijan even after Allgier's stud rookie year and Swift sees the Lions go way high on Gibbs and his role in the offense was immediately cut out. It's hard to see these players getting much more than change of pace or committee roles in their new offenses which is crazy particularly for swift who had 2nd or early 3rd round FF pick rate last year. 

Dawson Knox was a trap TE for fantasy football good enough to make you want to stick with him but ultimately hurt your team each week. I don't believe he's a great blocker and it will be difficult to see the Bills entering multi TE heavy fronts for the run even with an improved emphasis on it. Best case scenario is that Kincaid lines up at WR more than TE and he gets to at least be on the field as a decoy who some times catches Defenses sleeping. But even in that niche scenario he barely makes it to the field. TE is one of the slowest to develop positions so Knox may still have a large role early this year but by they end of the year Kincaid should have taken over.